Sat, Apr 5, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Boston Bruins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 09 | 29 | 08 | 226 |
| BOS | 18 | 112 | 322 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:56BOSDavid KrejciAssists: Loui Eriksson, Milan Lucic · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 14:36PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Mark Streit, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 14:55BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Loui Eriksson · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 16:21PHIJay RosehillAssists: Michael Raffl, Andrew MacDonald · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:54BOSJohnny BoychukGWGAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Slap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 14:25BOSMilan LucicAssists: Torey Krug, Loui Eriksson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 19:39BOSChris KellyENAssists: Loui Eriksson, Zdeno Chara · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 0:51BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:46BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:46PHIJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:11BOSPatrice Bergeron: Interference2 min
- P2 12:43BOSTorey Krug: Broken stick2 min · PPG
- P3 15:24PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHall – Rosehill – Raffl5:02
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Read – Couturier8:34
xG 0.35–0.35 (50%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn10:21
xG 0.43–0.96 (31%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:37
xG 0.43–1.27 (25%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn12:39
xG 0.61–0.31 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Streit – MacDonald2:21
xG 0.02–0.05 (24%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Coburn – Grossmann3:44
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Krejci – Lucic13:38
xG 1.62–0.97 (63%)attempts 24–12goals 3–1
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille8:18
xG 0.56–0.06 (90%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Kelly – Soderberg – Caron8:47
xG 0.48–0.03 (94%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Smith10:27
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski15:50
xG 1.55–0.55 (74%)attempts 27–10goals 1–0
- Chara – Hamilton15:51
xG 1.19–0.45 (72%)attempts 14–16goals 1–0
- Chara – Boychuk2:00
xG 0.08–0.02 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).