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Ice Lab

Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis

Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 0

Away

Colorado Avalanche

4

Final

Home

St. Louis Blues

0

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsCOL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
COL0631419429
STL0140809031

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 1:14COLPaul StastnyPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Max Talbot · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
  2. P2 6:20COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Jamie McGinn, Nate Guenin · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–0
  3. P2 10:25COLNick HoldenAssists: Paul Stastny, John Mitchell · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–0
  4. P3 15:55COLRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–0
Penalties (34)
  1. P1 7:52COLBrad Malone: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 10:07STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  3. P1 10:07COLMax Talbot: Roughing2 min
  4. P1 15:25COLPatrick Bordeleau: Interference2 min
  5. P1 17:39STLT.J. Oshie: High sticking2 min
  6. P1 0:00COLGabriel Landeskog: Roughing2 min
  7. P1 0:00STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min · PPG
  8. P1 0:00STLVladimir Sobotka: Cross checking2 min
  9. P2 3:48COLBrad Malone: Too many men on the ice2 min
  10. P2 19:14COLJohn Mitchell: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 5:35STLKevin Shattenkirk: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 7:59STLBarret Jackman: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  13. P3 7:59COLPatrick Bordeleau: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  14. P3 9:55STLDavid Backes: Hooking2 min
  15. P3 9:55COLGabriel Landeskog: Diving2 min
  16. P3 10:49STLBrenden Morrow: Cross checking5 min
  17. P3 10:49STLBrenden Morrow: Game misconduct10 min
  18. P3 14:43STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  19. P3 14:43STLDavid Backes: Roughing2 min
  20. P3 14:43COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 14:43STLBarret Jackman: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 14:43STLBarret Jackman: Misconduct10 min
  23. P3 14:43STLDavid Backes: Misconduct10 min
  24. P3 17:52COLMax Talbot: Misconduct10 min
  25. P3 17:52STLRoman Polak: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 17:52STLMaxim Lapierre: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 17:52STLAlex Pietrangelo: Misconduct10 min
  28. P3 17:52STLSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
  29. P3 17:52COLJan Hejda: Misconduct10 min
  30. P3 17:52COLBrad Malone: Misconduct10 min
  31. P3 17:52COLNate Guenin: Misconduct10 min
  32. P3 17:52COLPatrick Bordeleau: Misconduct10 min
  33. P3 17:52STLMaxim Lapierre: Slashing2 min
  34. P3 17:52STLMaxim Lapierre: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

COL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0STL
48% to win52% to win
← COL attackSTL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Stastny
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

COLSTL
29Shots on goal31
3.0Expected goals2.7
53Shot attempts60
29Faceoffs won34
8Power plays4
68Penalty minutes99
18Hits24
16Blocked shots9
3Giveaways3
3Takeaways6

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Colorado Avalanche

Forward lines

  1. bestMitchell – Stastny – Landeskog9:30

    xG 0.93–0.14 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0

  2. McGinn – O'Reilly – MacKinnon7:16

    xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0

  3. Talbot – Bordeleau – Cliche7:56

    xG 0.20–0.91 (18%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBenoit – Holden6:30

    xG 0.73–0.39 (65%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0

  2. Guenin – Barrie4:25

    xG 0.36–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0

  3. Hejda – Johnson9:41

    xG 0.28–0.46 (38%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0

St. Louis Blues

Forward lines

  1. bestBackes – Porter – Oshie7:28

    xG 0.78–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0

  2. Morrow – Sobotka – Schwartz5:45

    xG 0.36–0.03 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0

  3. Lapierre – Reaves – Jaskin4:31

    xG 0.02–0.16 (9%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0

  4. Ott – Berglund – Paajarvi5:33

    xG 0.31–0.77 (29%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo10:14

    xG 0.36–0.26 (58%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0

  2. Leopold – Shattenkirk11:53

    xG 0.18–0.38 (31%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0

  3. Jackman – Polak9:30

    xG 0.25–0.92 (21%)attempts 9–19goals 0–2

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

STL 2.7 xGCOL 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

STLCOL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 5/100 · #1108 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.59 · 3 goals in reachComeback index 48% (winner's lowest chance)
COL 100%5050%50STL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +16 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 54% of the time.

STL winsCOL wins

Simulated goal difference (STL − COL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).