Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 4, New York Islanders 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 39 | 08 | 04 | 1 | 429 |
| NYI | 117 | 28 | 011 | 02 | 0 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:55NYICal ClutterbuckAssists: Casey Cizikas, Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 2:36WSHEvgeny KuznetsovAssists: Marcus Johansson, Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 4:16NYIJohn PerssonAssists: Travis Hamonic, Calvin de Haan · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 9:55NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Josh Bailey, Matt Donovan · Snap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 12:45WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P2 15:01WSHJoel WardUnassisted · Wrist, 0.27 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 2. WSH Evgeny Kuznetsov scored
- 3. NYI Ryan Strome stopped
- 4. WSH Mikhail Grabovski stopped
- 5. NYI Brock Nelson stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:51NYIMike Halmo: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:51WSHTom Wilson: Boarding2 min
- P1 2:51NYIMike Halmo: Roughing2 min
- P1 5:03NYIRyan Strome: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:30NYICalvin de Haan: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:17WSHTyson Strachan: Holding2 min
- P2 6:25NYIMike Halmo: Interference2 min
- P2 8:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:32NYIMatt Carkner: Interference2 min
- P2 19:11WSHTroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:20NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansson won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ward – Johansson5:21
xG 0.44–0.08 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Beagle – Volpatti – Wilson2:34
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr3:15
xG 0.19–0.19 (50%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Brouwer – Johansson – Kuznetsov5:09
xG 0.17–0.19 (48%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Orlov3:25
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 1–0
- Strachan – Orlov11:06
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Strachan – Brouillette7:17
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Nelson – Persson4:30
xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee11:30
xG 0.45–0.46 (50%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Cizikas – Persson – Halmo3:00
xG 0.01–0.19 (7%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Strome8:48
xG 0.28–0.68 (29%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHickey – Czuczman14:20
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Czuczman2:19
xG 0.32–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
- Hamonic – Donovan3:22
xG 0.29–0.23 (56%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).