Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Winnipeg Jets 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 212 | 114 | 115 | 441 |
| TOR | 28 | 07 | 010 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:45TORPhil KesselAssists: Tyler Bozak, James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 6:22WPGBryan LittleAssists: Michael Frolik, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 13:45TORNazem KadriPPUnassisted · Snap, 0.24 xG1–2
- P1 19:56WPGJacob TroubaAssists: Michael Frolik, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 17:02WPGToby EnstromPPGWGAssists: Andrew Ladd, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 7:09WPGOlli JokinenAssists: Blake Wheeler, Eric O'Dell · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:00WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:47WPGMatt Halischuk: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:18WPGMark Stuart: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:25TORNikolay Kulemin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:34TORPaul Ranger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:30WPGToby Enstrom: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Little – Frolik11:59
xG 0.67–0.36 (65%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Slater – Tangradi – Peluso4:45
xG 0.31–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Slater – Setoguchi – Halischuk2:18
xG 0.19–0.05 (80%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – O'Dell3:17
xG 0.11–0.04 (72%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Trouba14:31
xG 0.78–0.14 (85%)attempts 29–4goals 2–1
- Pardy – Redmond9:07
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Enstrom – Postma11:58
xG 0.39–0.92 (30%)attempts 9–18goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Raymond – Kadri8:05
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Bolland – Raymond3:03
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri4:50
xG 0.31–0.34 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:27
xG 0.29–0.51 (36%)attempts 7–21goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFranson – Gardiner14:06
xG 0.94–0.58 (62%)attempts 18–10goals 0–0
- Ranger – Phaneuf3:38
xG 0.09–0.04 (69%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Gleason – Rielly2:37
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).