Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Centre Bell, Montreal
Detroit Red Wings 3, Montréal Canadiens 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 010 | 015 | 312 | 337 |
| MTL | 113 | 24 | 29 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:16MTLMichael BournivalAssists: Ryan White · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 8:52MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Mike Weaver, Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–2
- P2 13:35MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Lars Eller, Jarred Tinordi · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P3 5:11DETPavel DatsyukPPAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–3
- P3 5:47DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Drew Miller · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 10:44DETNiklas KronwallPPAssists: Johan Franzen, Gustav Nyquist · Slap, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 13:13MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Lars Eller, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 15:40MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 2:21MTLDaniel Brière: Tripping2 min
- P1 8:03DETBrendan Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:32DETLuke Glendening: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:20DETJakub Kindl: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:57MTLRene Bourque: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:26MTLTomas Plekanec: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:45MTLRyan White: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:41MTLFrancis Bouillon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:55DETTomas Jurco: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:55MTLAlexei Emelin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Glendening won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Franzen – Nyquist2:11
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Abdelkader – Glendening2:07
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Alfredsson – Helm – Nyquist4:30
xG 0.11–0.05 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Datsyuk – Abdelkader3:16
xG 0.02–0.13 (11%)attempts 1–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Smith2:09
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Smith12:41
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff6:52
xG 0.27–0.57 (32%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Bourque – Eller9:52
xG 0.69–0.36 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 2–0
- Vanek – Desharnais – Pacioretty12:37
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:10
xG 0.35–0.34 (51%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouillon – Weaver13:04
xG 1.26–0.32 (80%)attempts 10–9goals 3–0
- Subban – Tinordi10:01
xG 0.47–0.14 (78%)attempts 6–10goals 1–1
- Bouillon – Subban2:41
xG 0.01–0.19 (5%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).