Sat, Apr 5, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Dallas Stars 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 311 | 07 | 210 | 528 |
| TBL | 08 | 216 | 05 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40DALJamie BennAssists: Alex Goligoski, Tyler Seguin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 5:37DALJamie BennAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 18:26DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jordie Benn, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 1:57TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P2 6:44TBLAndrej SustrAssists: Ryan Malone, Nate Thompson · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–2
- P3 1:26DALVernon FiddlerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 7:57DALAntoine RousselAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Cody Eakin · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:56TBLRyan Malone: Hooking2 min
- P1 7:33TBLRadko Gudas: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P1 19:33DALAntoine Roussel: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:05TBLSami Salo: Holding2 min
- P2 12:31TBLRyan Malone: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 16:35DALRyan Garbutt: Holding2 min
- P3 13:41DALTyler Seguin: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:43DALJamie Benn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRoussel – Eakin – Garbutt8:06
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour7:16
xG 0.32–0.41 (44%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
- Cole – Jeffrey – Chiasson7:33
xG 0.15–0.39 (27%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin10:28
xG 0.33–0.69 (33%)attempts 8–14goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Nemeth6:32
xG 0.39–0.21 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Benn – Dillon15:30
xG 0.50–0.68 (42%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Daley – Goligoski13:41
xG 0.54–0.89 (38%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Palat8:58
xG 0.81–0.44 (65%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Killorn – Kucherov – Brown5:55
xG 0.08–0.11 (43%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Purcell8:55
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 5–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Brewer6:36
xG 0.63–0.09 (87%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Hedman – Sustr11:07
xG 0.79–0.38 (67%)attempts 13–8goals 2–1
- Salo – Hedman2:18
xG 0.09–0.16 (35%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).