Sun, Apr 6, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Islanders 0, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 010 | 010 | 011 | 031 |
| CBJ | 213 | 29 | 011 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:26CBJBoone JennerPPGWGAssists: Mark Letestu, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 13:10CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: James Wisniewski, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.20 xG0–2
- P2 10:11CBJMark LetestuAssists: Boone Jenner, Matt Frattin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 18:53CBJRyan MurrayPPAssists: Cam Atkinson, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.12 xG0–4
Penalties (18)
- P1 2:56NYIJohan Sundstrom: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 12:31NYIThomas Hickey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:50CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:42NYIKevin Czuczman: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:24CBJJames Wisniewski: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:24NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24CBJR.J. Umberger: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:24NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:46CBJMatt Calvert: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:46NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:46NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:46NYIMatt Carkner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:46NYIMatt Carkner: Fighting5 min
- P3 10:46CBJJared Boll: Misconduct10 min
- P3 10:46CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:29NYIJohn Persson: Interference2 min
- P3 14:19CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Anisimov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Bailey – Lee8:12
xG 0.39–0.22 (64%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Nelson – Persson5:45
xG 0.02–0.08 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Cizikas – Sundstrom – Halmo8:15
xG 0.24–0.34 (42%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Strome9:08
xG 0.17–0.36 (32%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDonovan – Mayfield10:38
xG 1.04–0.20 (84%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Czuczman14:06
xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic2:06
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Letestu – Calvert7:23
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Frattin – Johansen – Jenner9:40
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Anisimov – Atkinson9:18
xG 0.38–0.43 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Umberger – Boll7:26
xG 0.11–1.02 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Prout14:58
xG 0.50–0.48 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski14:36
xG 0.76–1.01 (43%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray15:15
xG 0.32–0.71 (31%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).