Sun, Apr 6, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Buffalo Sabres 2, Philadelphia Flyers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 05 | 06 | 28 | 219 |
| PHI | 114 | 315 | 18 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30PHIMatt ReadAssists: Mark Streit · Snap, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 7:40PHIZac RinaldoAssists: Matt Read, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 14:20PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Vincent Lecavalier · Tip-in, 0.15 xG0–3
- P2 17:58PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Jakub Voracek, Steve Mason · Snap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 7:26BUFCody HodgsonPPAssists: Christian Ehrhoff, Tyler Ennis · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 15:10PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Kimmo Timonen · Snap, 0.01 xG1–5
- P3 17:48BUFMike WeberAssists: Cody Hodgson, Matt D'Agostini · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:33BUFChristian Ehrhoff: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:17PHIZac Rinaldo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:30BUFJohan Larsson: Interference2 min
- P1 19:50PHISean Couturier: Interference2 min
- P2 10:20BUFJamie McBain: Interference2 min
- P2 12:57BUFJamie McBain: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:16PHIZac Rinaldo: Charging2 min
- P2 19:14PHIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:29PHIZac Rinaldo: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Ennis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Hodgson – Girgensons2:47
xG 0.14–0.07 (68%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Adam – Deslauriers – Larsson7:27
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- D'Agostini – Hodgson – Girgensons5:00
xG 0.01–0.20 (4%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Ellis – Scott – Flynn4:01
xG 0.04–0.32 (10%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Ristolainen11:40
xG 0.26–0.34 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – McBain2:16
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
- Weber – McCabe4:22
xG 0.03–0.43 (6%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Giroux – Voracek7:39
xG 0.56–0.08 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Read – Couturier5:02
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 2–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – Rosehill5:47
xG 0.28–0.07 (79%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Raffl6:44
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Schenn12:40
xG 0.49–0.09 (84%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn8:57
xG 0.56–0.18 (76%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Streit – Grossmann12:30
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).