Sun, Apr 6, 2014·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 13 | 08 | 112 | 223 |
| CHI | 011 | 212 | 212 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:57STLJaden SchwartzPPAssists: Brenden Morrow, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 8:34CHIJeremy MorinAssists: Bryan Bickell · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P2 19:33CHIPatrick SharpAssists: Jeremy Morin, Andrew Shaw · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 0:56CHIMarcus KrugerGWGAssists: Joakim Nordstrom · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 17:58STLVladimir SobotkaAssists: David Backes, Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–3
- P3 19:56CHIBen SmithENAssists: Kris Versteeg · Backhand, 0.65 xG2–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:45CHIAndrew Shaw: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 3:11STLRyan Reaves: Slashing2 min
- P1 10:14STLDavid Backes: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:49CHIPatrick Sharp: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:52STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:13CHIBrent Seabrook: Interference2 min
- P2 8:40STLRyan Reaves: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:40CHIBrandon Bollig: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:23CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:23STLDerek Roy: Diving2 min
- P3 2:05STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Morrow – Sobotka – Paajarvi5:51
xG 0.01–0.03 (27%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Porter – Reaves4:54
xG 0.03–0.30 (8%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Roy – Oshie – Berglund9:46
xG 0.10–0.55 (15%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Ott – Backes – Schwartz6:57
xG 0.16–0.85 (16%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Jackman – Polak12:43
xG 0.13–0.25 (34%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk11:57
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:38
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 16–17goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestKruger – Bollig – Nordstrom5:44
xG 1.00–0.06 (95%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Bickell – Regin – Morin6:58
xG 0.72–0.06 (92%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw10:06
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Handzus – Versteeg – Smith9:33
xG 0.09–0.14 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrookbank – Hjalmarsson13:42
xG 1.35–0.29 (82%)attempts 15–11goals 3–1
- Keith – Seabrook14:36
xG 0.57–0.15 (79%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Leddy12:46
xG 0.80–0.59 (57%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).