Sun, Apr 6, 2014·Pepsi Center, Denver
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 08 | 214 | 010 | 00 | 1 | 332 |
| COL | 015 | 012 | 211 | 03 | 0 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:46PITBrandon SutterAssists: Tanner Glass, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 7:08PITBrandon SutterPPAssists: Jussi Jokinen, James Neal · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 0:18COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Jamie McGinn, John Mitchell · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 16:47COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. COL Tyson Barrie stopped
- 2. PIT James Neal stopped
- 3. COL Ryan O'Reilly stopped
- 4. PIT Jussi Jokinen scored
- 5. COL Gabriel Landeskog stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 9:47PITJayson Megna: Kneeing2 min
- P1 18:05PITDeryk Engelland: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:44COLAndre Benoit: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:55PITBrian Gibbons: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:32PITAdam Payerl: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:15COLGabriel Landeskog: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:22PITPaul Martin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Glass – Sutter10:56
xG 0.86–0.17 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Ebbett – Gibbons7:15
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Adams – Payerl – Megna6:08
xG 0.08–0.24 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Neal – Bennett11:20
xG 0.60–0.77 (43%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Niskanen15:05
xG 1.08–0.31 (77%)attempts 12–8goals 1–1
- Engelland – Despres11:38
xG 0.22–0.39 (36%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Martin – Bortuzzo17:15
xG 0.27–0.91 (23%)attempts 14–21goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – MacKinnon7:32
xG 0.47–0.11 (81%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – McGinn – O'Reilly5:00
xG 0.48–0.12 (80%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon6:09
xG 0.29–0.13 (68%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Talbot – Bordeleau – Cliche7:37
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Barrie2:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie9:05
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Hejda – Barrie4:51
xG 0.38–0.37 (51%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).