Sun, Apr 6, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Anaheim Ducks 2, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 19 | 015 | 112 | 236 |
| EDM | 07 | 311 | 110 | 428 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:20ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Rickard Rakell · Deflected, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 6:17EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 9:21EDMDavid PerronSHAssists: Sam Gagner, Philip Larsen · Snap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 16:38EDMJustin SchultzGWGAssists: Jordan Eberle, Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 0:25ANACorey PerryPPAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Hampus Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 19:46EDMJordan EberleENAssists: Taylor Hall · Backhand, 0.57 xG2–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 12:10EDMSam Gagner: Holding2 min
- P1 18:44ANAStephane Robidas: Hooking2 min
- P2 1:35EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:35ANAMatt Beleskey: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 1:49EDMDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:45ANABen Lovejoy: Holding2 min
- P2 6:19EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:19ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 7:17ANAKyle Palmieri: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:31EDMJustin Schultz: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:12EDMSteven Pinizzotto: Misconduct10 min
- P2 13:12ANAMatt Beleskey: Misconduct10 min
- P2 14:01ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:01EDMMark Fraser: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:56EDMDavid Perron: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:57EDMJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nugent-Hopkins won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Beleskey7:26
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell10:04
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Perreault – Maroon – Palmieri4:47
xG 0.02–0.04 (38%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Maroon3:25
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Beauchemin14:28
xG 0.74–0.60 (55%)attempts 20–9goals 1–1
- Lovejoy – Lindholm11:57
xG 0.57–0.55 (51%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Allen – Vatanen10:07
xG 0.05–0.42 (11%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins12:44
xG 1.11–0.57 (66%)attempts 15–15goals 1–0
- Smyth – Gagner – Perron7:19
xG 0.68–0.31 (69%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Smyth – Gordon – Pinizzotto2:12
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Gordon – Lander2:12
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Klefbom14:43
xG 1.21–0.43 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Petry – Marincin13:19
xG 0.57–0.45 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Fraser – Belov7:46
xG 0.57–0.52 (52%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).