Mon, Apr 7, 2014·Prudential Center, Newark
Calgary Flames 1, New Jersey Devils 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 09 | 16 | 122 |
| NJD | 012 | 010 | 09 | 031 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:23CGYMark GiordanoPPGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Michael Cammalleri · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:02NJDRyan Carter: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 8:17CGYKarri Ramo: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 9:17CGYLance Bouma: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:31NJDTravis Zajac: Interference2 min
- P2 0:45CGYMichael Cammalleri: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:46NJDRyan Carter: Interference2 min
- P2 18:26NJDJon Merrill: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestMcGrattan – Galiardi – Agostino7:58
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Bouma2:56
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Hudler – Van Brabant7:22
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Westgarth – Bouma – Hanowski4:27
xG 0.03–0.09 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Brodie2:17
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Cundari – Billins6:53
xG 0.16–0.24 (40%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie19:02
xG 0.65–0.85 (43%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Zajac – Brunner10:48
xG 0.49–0.20 (71%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jagr – Ruutu – Zajac5:30
xG 0.32–0.17 (66%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Brunner3:42
xG 0.14–0.10 (59%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter5:55
xG 0.16–0.16 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene10:19
xG 0.84–0.15 (85%)attempts 14–3goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill12:11
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Greene3:38
xG 0.29–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).