Tue, Apr 8, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 210 | 07 | 115 | 00 | 332 |
| CBJ | 14 | 111 | 114 | 11 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:15CBJBoone JennerAssists: Nathan Horton, Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 13:32PHXMartin EratAssists: Radim Vrbata, Kyle Chipchura · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P1 17:53PHXShane DoanAssists: Michael Stone, Keith Yandle · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 5:25CBJMark LetestuAssists: Artem Anisimov · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 13:42CBJBlake ComeauAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Artem Anisimov · Snap, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 19:45PHXOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- OT 3:33CBJRyan JohansenGWGAssists: James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (5)
- P2 6:08CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Cross checking2 min
- P2 8:24PHXMartin Erat: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:45PHXKyle Chipchura: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:45CBJCorey Tropp: Fighting5 min
- P3 6:21CBJJames Wisniewski: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Vrbata – Chipchura10:49
xG 0.62–0.18 (78%)attempts 10–6goals 1–1
- Halpern – Klinkhammer – McMillan7:53
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Vermette – Boedker13:40
xG 0.30–0.33 (48%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Moss – Korpikoski9:27
xG 0.29–0.42 (41%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Ekman-Larsson18:46
xG 0.82–0.45 (65%)attempts 21–14goals 0–0
- Morris – Summers13:15
xG 0.23–0.37 (38%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Yandle – Stone13:50
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 8–14goals 2–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson8:59
xG 0.17–0.08 (69%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Horton – Johansen – Jenner4:36
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 4–2goals 1–1
- Comeau – Anisimov – Letestu5:38
xG 0.11–0.02 (83%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Anisimov2:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson10:12
xG 0.51–0.39 (56%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Savard – Murray7:13
xG 0.21–0.14 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Murray12:29
xG 0.41–0.42 (49%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).