Tue, Apr 8, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 011 | 07 | 028 |
| TBL | 011 | 212 | 111 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:19TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Radko Gudas · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 15:45TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
- P3 19:47TBLVictor HedmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG0–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 3:45TBLMatt Carle: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:55TBLAndrej Sustr: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:53TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:38TORTroy Bodie: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Bodie – Kulemin – Ashton2:10
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – D'Amigo3:47
xG 0.01–0.03 (29%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kulemin7:25
xG 0.06–0.17 (25%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Clarkson – Raymond – Kadri3:30
xG 0.17–0.28 (37%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Franson – Rielly13:04
xG 0.41–0.44 (48%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Gardiner14:00
xG 0.37–0.52 (41%)attempts 12–17goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Palat13:50
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Kucherov – Brown11:00
xG 0.39–0.08 (83%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Thompson – Purcell – Panik9:25
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn12:12
xG 0.23–0.43 (35%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSalo – Hedman5:27
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Carle – Gudas12:15
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Brewer – Sustr8:40
xG 0.25–0.04 (85%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).