Tue, Apr 8, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Florida Panthers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 412 | 13 | 527 |
| FLA | 010 | 014 | 216 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:02PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–0
- P2 6:29PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Luke Schenn · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 8:50PHIClaude GirouxGWGAssists: Mark Streit, Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–0
- P2 15:03PHISean CouturierAssists: Braydon Coburn, Matt Read · Slap, 0.05 xG4–0
- P3 1:14FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Scottie Upshall, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P3 5:38FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Jesse Winchester, Drew Shore · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
- P3 15:06PHITye McGinnAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Adam Hall · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:51FLADrew Shore: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:11FLAScottie Upshall: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:57PHIMichael Raffl: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl11:35
xG 0.98–0.21 (82%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – McGinn9:09
xG 0.71–0.36 (66%)attempts 6–10goals 2–0
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek10:49
xG 0.19–0.27 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Downie – Read – Couturier14:29
xG 0.17–0.75 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – Grossmann16:18
xG 1.30–0.20 (86%)attempts 13–11goals 3–0
- Coburn – MacDonald2:26
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn11:06
xG 0.13–0.27 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck11:13
xG 0.75–0.20 (79%)attempts 16–4goals 1–1
- Boyes – Bergenheim – Bjugstad13:11
xG 0.24–0.26 (47%)attempts 7–8goals 0–2
- Hayes – Pirri – Howden8:22
xG 0.31–0.46 (40%)attempts 11–3goals 0–1
- Winchester – Shore – Huberdeau11:58
xG 0.18–0.37 (33%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Kulikov18:43
xG 0.99–0.22 (82%)attempts 22–6goals 1–0
- Robak – Olsen12:53
xG 0.07–0.48 (12%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
- Jovanovski – Gudbranson13:45
xG 0.55–1.18 (32%)attempts 24–15goals 1–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).