Tue, Apr 8, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 4, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 17 | 213 | 12 | 422 |
| STL | 09 | 111 | 09 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:54WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Joel Ward · Slap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 2:39STLMaxim LapierreAssists: Steve Ott, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–1
- P2 8:52WSHMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Eric Fehr, Braden Holtby · Slap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P2 18:50WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Dmitry Orlov · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 0:16WSHNicklas BackstromPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 16:23STLDerek Roy: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:09WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:09WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Throwing equipment2 min
- P2 7:48STLKevin Shattenkirk: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:01STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:55WSHTyson Strachan: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:07STLJaden Schwartz: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 14:56WSHJoel Ward: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:56STLCarlo Colaiacovo: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sobotka won the faceoff against Fehr
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestPenner – Beagle – Wilson4:37
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Beagle – Kuznetsov – Wilson4:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Grabovski – Backstrom9:27
xG 0.36–0.38 (48%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Penner – Brouwer – Johansson3:42
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Orlov17:34
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 5–16goals 1–0
- Alzner – Carlson14:44
xG 0.27–0.54 (33%)attempts 10–21goals 0–0
- Brouillette – Carrick11:33
xG 0.03–1.20 (3%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Lapierre – Reaves9:47
xG 0.80–0.07 (92%)attempts 16–2goals 1–0
- Steen – Backes – Schwartz5:45
xG 0.49–0.06 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund7:29
xG 0.50–0.07 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Steen – Schwartz – Jaskin2:48
xG 0.17–0.10 (63%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Polak12:05
xG 0.55–0.02 (97%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo14:47
xG 0.66–0.13 (83%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Jackman – Shattenkirk12:57
xG 0.72–0.36 (67%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).