Tue, Apr 8, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Nashville Predators 2, Dallas Stars 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 08 | 115 | 15 | 01 | 1 | 229 |
| DAL | 111 | 16 | 011 | 02 | 2 | 330 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:23DALAlex GoligoskiAssists: Vernon Fiddler, Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 1:22NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Craig Smith, Shea Weber · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 8:16DALJamie BennAssists: Valeri Nichushkin, Brenden Dillon · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 10:24NSHGabriel BourqueAssists: Paul Gaustad · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. NSH Calle Jarnkrok stopped
- 2. DAL Jordie Benn stopped
- 3. NSH Craig Smith stopped
- 4. DAL Jamie Benn stopped
- 5. NSH Roman Josi scored
- 6. DAL Vernon Fiddler scored
- 7. NSH Matt Cullen stopped
- 8. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
Penalties (3)
- P1 16:56DALJamie Benn: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:40NSHShea Weber: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:02NSHVictor Bartley: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jarnkrok won the faceoff against Benn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Smith – Bourque7:53
xG 0.78–0.39 (67%)attempts 15–6goals 2–1
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist15:21
xG 0.55–0.24 (69%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Stalberg – Spaling – Wilson7:44
xG 0.36–0.07 (84%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Nystrom – Clune – Jarnkrok4:05
xG 0.13–0.10 (58%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBartley – Jones11:56
xG 0.67–0.19 (78%)attempts 18–4goals 0–1
- Ellis – Ekholm17:07
xG 0.56–0.38 (60%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Josi24:49
xG 1.02–1.18 (46%)attempts 24–31goals 2–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt11:05
xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin12:11
xG 0.77–0.76 (50%)attempts 15–15goals 1–2
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour12:21
xG 0.29–0.44 (39%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Cole – Jeffrey – Chiasson4:23
xG 0.10–0.27 (26%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Gonchar – Nemeth11:05
xG 0.34–0.34 (50%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Benn – Dillon21:08
xG 0.62–0.93 (40%)attempts 15–24goals 1–2
- Daley – Goligoski20:03
xG 0.69–1.01 (41%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).