Thu, Apr 10, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New Jersey Devils 1, Ottawa Senators 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 08 | 112 | 015 | 04 | 0 | 139 |
| OTT | 010 | 110 | 07 | 05 | 1 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:20OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 17:26NJDMichael RyderAssists: Anton Volchenkov, Tim Sestito · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. OTT Kyle Turris stopped
- 2. NJD Travis Zajac stopped
- 3. OTT Jason Spezza stopped
- 4. NJD Adam Larsson stopped
- 5. OTT Milan Michalek stopped
- 6. NJD Jaromir Jagr stopped
- 7. OTT Erik Karlsson scored
- 8. NJD Dainius Zubrus stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:37NJDAndy Greene: Delaying game2 min
- P1 8:06NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:48NJDMarek Zidlicky: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 0:18OTTZack Smith: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:49OTTAles Hemsky: Tripping2 min
- OT 4:25NJDJaromir Jagr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gionta won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Elias – Zajac5:15
xG 0.28–0.13 (68%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Sislo – Brunner3:34
xG 0.13–0.01 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Sestito6:43
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Bernier – Gionta – Carter9:57
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 6–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Greene15:04
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Volchenkov – Larsson13:06
xG 0.46–0.44 (51%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Merrill17:26
xG 0.72–0.82 (47%)attempts 15–20goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestMacArthur – Turris – Stone12:26
xG 0.95–0.61 (61%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Neil – Hoffman – Zibanejad6:38
xG 0.21–0.13 (62%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek10:47
xG 0.32–0.30 (52%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Greening – Condra – Smith10:57
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci13:18
xG 0.80–0.63 (56%)attempts 20–11goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Wiercioch2:06
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Methot – Ceci2:25
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).