Thu, Apr 10, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 012 | 115 | 19 | 236 |
| TBL | 110 | 011 | 39 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Steven Stamkos, Michael Kostka · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 18:39PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P3 4:33TBLRichard PanikAssists: Victor Hedman, Michael Kostka · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 9:43TBLEric BrewerGWGAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P3 12:22PHISean CouturierAssists: Mark Streit · Backhand, 0.01 xG2–3
- P3 14:14TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.27 xG2–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:51TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:32PHIScott Hartnell: Interference2 min
- P2 12:47PHIAndrew MacDonald: Interference2 min
- P2 18:11TBLTyler Johnson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:35TBLAndrej Sustr: Interference2 min
- P3 13:19PHIScott Hartnell: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Schenn – Raffl7:22
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – McGinn7:21
xG 0.64–0.40 (62%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:53
xG 0.40–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier2:20
xG 0.16–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStreit – MacDonald15:49
xG 0.98–0.27 (78%)attempts 23–9goals 1–0
- Timonen – Coburn12:53
xG 0.62–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Coburn – MacDonald3:41
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Palat8:45
xG 0.39–0.20 (66%)attempts 12–4goals 2–1
- Pyatt – Kucherov – Brown8:22
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Killorn10:59
xG 0.11–0.33 (25%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Purcell – Panik9:11
xG 0.37–0.69 (35%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Gudas2:49
xG 0.12–0.08 (60%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Brewer – Kostka10:37
xG 0.46–0.53 (47%)attempts 8–14goals 3–1
- Hedman – Sustr14:18
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).