Thu, Apr 10, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
St. Louis Blues 2, Minnesota Wild 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 017 | 211 | 017 | 245 |
| MIN | 15 | 27 | 13 | 415 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:02MINNino NiederreiterAssists: Jonathon Blum, Matt Cooke · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 11:05STLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 12:24MINKyle BrodziakSHAssists: Matt Cooke, Nate Prosser · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 16:01STLJaden SchwartzSHAssists: Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P2 17:30MINMatt MoulsonGWGAssists: Dany Heatley, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
- P3 0:58MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Christian Folin, Nino Niederreiter · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:22MINNino Niederreiter: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 7:30STLSteve Ott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:31STLRyan Reaves: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:30MINMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:30MINMike Rupp: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
- P2 12:24STLSteve Ott: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 15:21STLMaxim Lapierre: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43STLAlexander Steen: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:38MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestPorter – Berglund – Jaskin2:32
xG 0.44–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Steen – Sobotka – Schwartz5:34
xG 0.55–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–2goals 0–1
- Roy – Porter – Paajarvi3:18
xG 0.58–0.32 (65%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Sobotka6:06
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Shattenkirk6:53
xG 0.75–0.06 (93%)attempts 10–1goals 0–1
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo13:54
xG 0.56–0.11 (84%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Polak6:50
xG 0.36–0.14 (73%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCooke – Brodziak – Niederreiter7:41
xG 0.45–0.25 (65%)attempts 4–9goals 2–0
- Cooke – Heatley – Brodziak2:18
xG 0.02–0.02 (54%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Coyle5:19
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Rupp – Heatley – McCormick5:18
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBlum – Scandella4:23
xG 0.35–0.12 (74%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Scandella – Folin9:50
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 2–7goals 1–0
- Suter – Blum5:12
xG 0.03–0.09 (26%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).