Thu, Apr 10, 2014·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Colorado Avalanche 4, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 09 | 39 | 428 |
| VAN | 114 | 06 | 120 | 240 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:52VANHenrik SedinAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Daniel Sedin · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:39COLPaul StastnyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–1
- P3 5:21COLPaul StastnyAssists: Erik Johnson, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P3 7:00VANDavid BoothAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 12:30COLTyson BarrieGWGAssists: Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 19:17COLJohn MitchellENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 19:33VANRyan Stanton: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:29VANBrad Richardson: Holding2 min
- P2 10:29COLAndre Benoit: Diving2 min
- P2 15:24VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:32VANAlexander Edler: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:13COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:13VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:54VANYannick Weber: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcGinn – O'Reilly – MacKinnon9:49
xG 0.87–0.16 (84%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon3:56
xG 0.67–0.29 (70%)attempts 6–10goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Stastny – Landeskog9:46
xG 0.41–0.27 (61%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Talbot – Bordeleau – Cliche10:53
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHejda – Johnson13:11
xG 1.46–0.39 (79%)attempts 15–18goals 2–0
- Guenin – Barrie11:27
xG 0.47–0.60 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Benoit – Holden11:53
xG 0.14–0.62 (19%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Kesler – Booth3:20
xG 0.44–0.13 (78%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Richardson – Kassian8:04
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Jensen11:47
xG 0.69–0.67 (51%)attempts 18–5goals 1–2
- Booth – Sestito – Matthias3:06
xG 0.04–0.18 (18%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Corrado14:06
xG 0.84–0.27 (75%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0
- Bieksa – Edler15:44
xG 0.59–0.76 (44%)attempts 20–12goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Weber14:30
xG 0.60–1.28 (32%)attempts 15–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).