Fri, Apr 11, 2014·Tampa Bay Times Forum, Tampa
Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 014 | 113 | 111 | 238 |
| TBL | 08 | 311 | 03 | 322 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:55TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 13:46CBJBoone JennerPPAssists: Jack Johnson, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 14:54TBLEric BrewerAssists: Cedric Paquette · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P2 18:06TBLEric BrewerGWGAssists: Michael Kostka, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 16:37CBJDavid SavardAssists: Boone Jenner, Blake Comeau · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 12:05TBLMatt Carle: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:27CBJJack Johnson: Elbowing2 min
- P2 2:37CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:42CBJBoone Jenner: Holding2 min
- P2 12:52TBLRichard Panik: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:51TBLRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:51CBJCorey Tropp: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:51TBLRichard Panik: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubinsky won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson12:16
xG 0.68–0.27 (71%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
- Comeau – Johansen – Jenner10:37
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp6:05
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Skille – Anisimov9:33
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Johnson16:26
xG 0.65–0.28 (70%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Johnson – Savard2:17
xG 0.36–0.02 (95%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Murray14:18
xG 0.11–0.20 (36%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Palat8:22
xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kucherov – Brown – Paquette5:06
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Callahan – Pyatt – Killorn8:09
xG 0.15–0.17 (47%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Thompson – Panik6:26
xG 0.17–0.23 (43%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Sustr4:52
xG 0.22–0.06 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Carle – Sustr6:29
xG 0.21–0.08 (72%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Brewer – Kostka8:30
xG 0.14–0.02 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).