Fri, Apr 11, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Winnipeg Jets 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 214 | 15 | 28 | 527 |
| CGY | 08 | 312 | 018 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:23WPGMichael FrolikAssists: Jacob Trouba, Mark Stuart · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 16:10WPGEvander KaneAssists: Bryan Little, Adam Pardy · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P2 1:04CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Matt Stajan, TJ Brodie · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 8:48WPGCarl KlingbergAssists: Patrice Cormier, Zach Redmond · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 11:46CGYSean MonahanPPAssists: Jiri Hudler, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P2 12:10CGYKris RussellPPAssists: Paul Byron, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–3
- P3 9:16WPGPaul PostmaGWGAssists: Anthony Peluso, Patrice Cormier · Slap, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:03WPGBlake WheelerENAssists: Olli Jokinen · Wrist, 0.61 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P2 1:43WPGOlli Jokinen: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:19WPGOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48WPGMark Stuart: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:34CGYTJ Galiardi: Interference2 min
- P3 10:07CGYPaul Byron: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:12WPGEric O'Dell: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:48WPGToby Enstrom: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bouma won the faceoff against Slater
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestSlater – Halischuk – O'Dell6:42
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Peluso – Cormier – Klingberg7:17
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–10goals 2–0
- Jokinen – Wheeler – Tangradi13:03
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 14–14goals 0–0
- Little – Frolik – Kane11:19
xG 0.39–0.40 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestPardy – Postma4:56
xG 0.30–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Stuart – Trouba3:54
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Pardy – Redmond7:48
xG 0.26–0.19 (58%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestWestgarth – Galiardi – Van Brabant2:24
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Bouma – Agostino2:10
xG 0.05–0.03 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McGrattan – Westgarth – Bouma3:53
xG 0.04–0.02 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Galiardi – Agostino – Van Brabant2:32
xG 0.03–0.08 (28%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRussell – Butler14:47
xG 0.76–0.27 (73%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Giordano – Brodie16:15
xG 0.76–0.29 (72%)attempts 21–9goals 1–1
- Cundari – Billins9:03
xG 0.18–0.26 (41%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).