Fri, Apr 11, 2014·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Colorado Avalanche 1, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 111 | 011 | 133 |
| SJS | 27 | 011 | 312 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:01SJSDan BoyleAssists: Joe Thornton, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 10:11SJSPatrick MarleauGWGAssists: Martin Havlat, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 15:18COLPatrick BordeleauAssists: Max Talbot, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 5:26SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Deflected, 0.13 xG1–3
- P3 13:40SJSMartin HavlatAssists: Bracken Kearns, Andrew Desjardins · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P3 15:04SJSMartin HavlatENAssists: Logan Couture, Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.60 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:13SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:29COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 15:35COLPA Parenteau: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:49SJSTomas Hertl: Boarding2 min
- P3 18:49COLPatrick Bordeleau: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon11:19
xG 0.85–0.79 (52%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Carey – Malone – MacKinnon2:14
xG 0.02–0.01 (73%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – O'Reilly11:59
xG 0.26–0.41 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
- Talbot – Bordeleau – Cliche11:34
xG 0.38–0.93 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenoit – Holden5:03
xG 0.60–0.12 (83%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Guenin – Wilson2:01
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Guenin – Holden7:33
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Havlat – Couture10:42
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 7–6goals 2–0
- Kennedy – Desjardins – Kearns7:50
xG 0.45–0.37 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Sheppard – Wingels – Hertl12:17
xG 0.38–0.68 (36%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Irwin7:33
xG 1.10–0.33 (77%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Hannan – Demers2:41
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Boyle – Demers2:59
xG 0.15–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).