Sat, Apr 12, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Buffalo Sabres 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 07 | 17 | 011 | 125 |
| BOS | 29 | 111 | 110 | 430 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:54BOSGregory CampbellAssists: Jordan Caron, Shawn Thornton · Tip-in, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 18:23BOSDavid KrejciGWGAssists: Zdeno Chara, Milan Lucic · Backhand, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 11:43BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Torey Krug · Slap, 0.02 xG0–3
- P2 13:58BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Marcus Foligno, Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–3
- P3 10:35BOSDavid KrejciPPAssists: Torey Krug, Tuukka Rask · Slap, 0.27 xG1–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:22BUFCory Conacher: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:40BOSMilan Lucic: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:58BUFJohn Scott: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:58BOSZdeno Chara: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 9:58BUFJohn Scott: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:58BUFJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 7:17BUFJake McCabe: Interference5 min · PPG
- P3 7:17BUFJake McCabe: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 7:17BOSGregory Campbell: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:42BOSShawn Thornton: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:20BUFJohn Scott: Misconduct10 min
- P3 16:20BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hodgson won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestEllis – Mitchell – Conacher5:11
xG 0.30–0.17 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Conacher – Flynn2:52
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Foligno – Girgensons13:26
xG 0.14–0.43 (24%)attempts 7–14goals 1–1
- Stafford – D'Agostini – Ennis9:11
xG 0.21–0.61 (26%)attempts 6–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Ristolainen3:04
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain3:52
xG 0.04–0.17 (18%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Weber13:50
xG 0.12–0.42 (23%)attempts 7–14goals 1–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith8:11
xG 0.71–0.04 (95%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Iginla – Krejci – Lucic9:50
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Caron10:34
xG 0.26–0.11 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Paille – Eriksson – Soderberg9:50
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Bartkowski13:35
xG 0.68–0.06 (92%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug13:15
xG 0.32–0.18 (64%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton12:53
xG 0.47–0.38 (55%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).