Sat, Apr 12, 2014·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 012 | 07 | 09 | 028 |
| OTT | 015 | 111 | 011 | 137 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:35OTTJason SpezzaPPGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Ales Hemsky · Slap, 0.05 xG0–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:08TORTim Gleason: Interference2 min
- P1 14:26TORJay McClement: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:45OTTPatrick Wiercioch: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 6:30TORPaul Ranger: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:44OTTJason Spezza: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 6:23OTTChris Neil: Holding2 min
- P3 8:00OTTMilan Michalek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak12:52
xG 0.86–0.54 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Orr – Raymond – Holland2:15
xG 0.09–0.03 (78%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Orr – McClement – Holland2:02
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Bodie – Raymond – Kadri5:50
xG 0.10–0.12 (44%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly2:41
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Franson – Rielly5:57
xG 0.38–0.06 (87%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Franson – Gardiner3:47
xG 0.20–0.13 (61%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Michalek10:11
xG 0.41–0.12 (77%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Neil – Greening – Pageau8:40
xG 0.54–0.28 (66%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone9:38
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Condra – Smith – Hoffman10:19
xG 0.16–0.12 (58%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMethot – Karlsson18:32
xG 0.81–0.26 (76%)attempts 25–12goals 0–0
- Phillips – Ceci12:19
xG 0.53–0.22 (71%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch11:24
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).