Sat, Apr 12, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 118 | 16 | 114 | 338 |
| FLA | 19 | 117 | 09 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:47CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Matt Calvert · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–0
- P1 18:59FLAVincent TrocheckSHUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 6:35FLAJimmy HayesAssists: Brandon Pirri, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 10:14CBJMark LetestuPPAssists: Ryan Johansen, Boone Jenner · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:58CBJRyan JohansenPPGWGAssists: James Wisniewski, Jack Johnson · Slap, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 3:10FLAEd Jovanovski: Holding2 min
- P1 6:48FLAQuinton Howden: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:08CBJBlake Comeau: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:26FLAEd Jovanovski: Elbowing5 min
- P1 16:26FLAEd Jovanovski: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 4:19CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:19FLABrad Boyes: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 13:41CBJCam Atkinson: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:00CBJJared Boll: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:58FLATomas Fleischmann: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestDubinsky – Calvert – Atkinson9:08
xG 0.51–0.19 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Skille – Johansen – Jenner7:50
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp4:32
xG 0.13–0.07 (65%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Comeau – Anisimov7:13
xG 0.10–0.23 (29%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Savard13:11
xG 0.78–0.27 (74%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Wisniewski – Johnson12:17
xG 0.65–0.45 (59%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Prout12:08
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- Hayes – Pirri – Howden4:07
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Upshall – Shore – Huberdeau2:44
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Winchester – Shore – Huberdeau4:25
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Upshall – Trocheck6:26
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Gudbranson4:50
xG 0.34–0.10 (77%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Kulikov – Gudbranson5:43
xG 0.27–0.08 (76%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Olsen – Kulikov2:17
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).