Sat, Apr 12, 2014·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Chicago Blackhawks 5, Nashville Predators 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 27 | 16 | 212 | 525 |
| NSH | 14 | 113 | 516 | 733 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:11CHIBen SmithAssists: Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 12:43CHIMarian HossaUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–0
- P1 12:57NSHCraig SmithAssists: Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 6:32NSHRyan EllisAssists: Mike Fisher, Patric Hornqvist · Snap, 0.14 xG2–2
- P2 13:16CHIMatt CareyAssists: Bryan Bickell, Brandon Saad · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 4:03NSHMatt CullenAssists: Mike Fisher, Mattias Ekholm · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–3
- P3 7:05NSHColin WilsonAssists: Nick Spaling, Shea Weber · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–4
- P3 8:00CHIJeremy MorinAssists: Johnny Oduya, Andrew Shaw · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–4
- P3 17:05NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Craig Smith, Gabriel Bourque · Snap, 0.22 xG4–5
- P3 18:25CHIAndrew ShawUnassisted · Slap, 0.06 xG5–5
- P3 19:01NSHPatric HornqvistGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Mike Fisher · Tip-in, 0.15 xG5–6
- P3 19:46NSHShea WeberENAssists: Roman Josi, Paul Gaustad · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–7
Penalties (5)
- P2 3:12NSHRyan Ellis: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:04CHIMichal Rozsival: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:39NSHSeth Jones: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:02CHIKris Versteeg: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:18CHIBryan Bickell: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Jarnkrok
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBickell – Regin – Morin7:26
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Shaw3:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Smith – Bollig – Nordstrom4:07
xG 0.22–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Versteeg – Smith – Saad4:59
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 6–3goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Brookbank – Seabrook14:37
xG 0.27–0.56 (32%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Leddy – Rundblad12:03
xG 0.60–0.99 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 1–4
- Rozsival – Oduya17:45
xG 0.20–0.79 (20%)attempts 12–13goals 2–1
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestGaustad – Smith – Bourque6:46
xG 0.68–0.05 (93%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Cullen – Fisher – Hornqvist11:56
xG 0.78–0.17 (82%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Stalberg – Spaling – Wilson8:26
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Nystrom – Clune4:06
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Ekholm13:13
xG 1.14–0.52 (69%)attempts 11–12goals 4–1
- Weber – Josi20:22
xG 0.91–0.51 (64%)attempts 12–21goals 2–3
- Del Zotto – Jones12:18
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).