Sat, Apr 12, 2014·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Phoenix Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 28 | 013 | 111 | 332 |
| PHX | 05 | 116 | 111 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:43SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 9:56SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Matt Irwin, Joe Thornton · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:22PHXMike RibeiroAssists: Radim Vrbata, Martin Erat · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P3 0:13SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Dan Boyle · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 0:44PHXShane DoanAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Brandon McMillan · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:52PHXPaul Bissonnette: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:22SJSBrad Stuart: Interference2 min
- P2 15:53PHXPaul Bissonnette: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:45PHXKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestHavlat – Pavelski – Wingels4:24
xG 0.22–0.07 (77%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Sheppard – Wingels – Hertl7:29
xG 0.04–0.02 (70%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Marleau – Havlat – Couture6:10
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Marleau – Sheppard – Couture4:34
xG 0.22–0.31 (41%)attempts 3–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Braun13:38
xG 0.41–0.19 (68%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Demers10:39
xG 0.16–0.29 (35%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Boyle – Irwin12:52
xG 0.29–0.56 (34%)attempts 7–15goals 1–2
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Chipchura – McMillan11:13
xG 0.59–0.30 (66%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Ribeiro – Erat – Vrbata10:29
xG 0.44–0.17 (72%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Ribeiro – McMillan2:24
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moss – Bissonnette7:44
xG 0.10–0.06 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEkman-Larsson – Murphy17:18
xG 0.86–0.49 (64%)attempts 22–10goals 1–2
- Summers – Gormley10:41
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Yandle – Stone19:17
xG 0.27–0.51 (34%)attempts 15–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).