Sat, Apr 12, 2014·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 2, Edmonton Oilers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 018 | 17 | 117 | 242 |
| EDM | 25 | 29 | 18 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14EDMRoman HorakAssists: Steven Pinizzotto, Will Acton · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:17EDMJeff PetryAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P2 2:14EDMWill ActonGWGAssists: Philip Larsen, Steven Pinizzotto · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–3
- P2 5:25VANShawn MatthiasAssists: Zack Kassian · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 16:06EDMJordan EberlePPAssists: Justin Schultz, Taylor Hall · Snap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 1:35EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Martin Marincin, Taylor Hall · Deflected, 0.23 xG1–5
- P3 19:49VANZack KassianAssists: Brad Richardson, Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 8:32VANNicklas Jensen: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:47EDMDavid Perron: Boarding2 min
- P2 7:51VANRyan Stanton: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:27VANAlexander Edler: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 15:54VANJason Garrison: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:06EDMRyan Smyth: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:06VANRyan Kesler: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:21EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Lander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Matthias – Kassian8:41
xG 1.29–0.30 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 2–2
- Burrows – Kesler – Booth6:34
xG 0.77–0.31 (72%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Hansen – Schroeder – Zalewski5:12
xG 0.18–0.02 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Hansen – Schroeder3:49
xG 0.17–0.07 (72%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStanton – Corrado14:47
xG 1.71–0.45 (79%)attempts 27–13goals 2–1
- Hamhuis – Garrison13:56
xG 0.94–0.78 (55%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Edler – Weber13:40
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEberle – Hall – Nugent-Hopkins13:14
xG 1.27–0.53 (71%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Hendricks – Pinizzotto – Acton7:27
xG 0.16–0.17 (49%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Smyth – Perron – Lander10:17
xG 0.21–0.89 (19%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fraser – Belov6:26
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Petry – Belov3:00
xG 0.07–0.09 (43%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Petry – Marincin10:20
xG 0.97–1.00 (49%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).