Sun, Apr 13, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Philadelphia Flyers 5 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 313 | 112 | 19 | 04 | 1 | 638 |
| PHI | 111 | 311 | 118 | 04 | 0 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:07CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Riley Nash, Mike Komisarek · Slap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:31CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 9:51PHIMatt ReadAssists: Jason Akeson, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.14 xG2–1
- P1 12:32CARManny MalhotraAssists: Mike Komisarek · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 0:17CAREric StaalAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Justin Faulk · Wrist, 0.01 xG4–1
- P2 12:00PHIKimmo TimonenPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Slap, 0.04 xG4–2
- P2 12:10PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Tye McGinn · Snap, 0.06 xG4–3
- P2 15:32PHISean CouturierUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–4
- P3 15:39CARJeff SkinnerPPAssists: Andrei Loktionov, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.40 xG5–4
- P3 19:50PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Mark Streit, Kimmo Timonen · Wrist, 0.44 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jason Akeson stopped
- 2. CAR Eric Staal scored
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. CAR Jeff Skinner stopped
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
Penalties (7)
- P2 9:01PHIBrayden Schenn: Holding2 min
- P2 11:16CARRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 16:51PHIMark Streit: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:09CARBrett Bellemore: Slashing2 min
- P3 13:09CARRon Hainsey: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:09PHIScott Hartnell: Spearing5 min · PPG
- P3 13:09PHIScott Hartnell: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestDvorak – Malhotra – Bowman7:33
xG 0.23–0.10 (69%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Dwyer – Gerbe – Staal11:41
xG 0.35–0.41 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
- Nash – Skinner – Lindholm8:41
xG 0.29–0.52 (36%)attempts 6–8goals 1–2
- Staal – Tlusty – Loktionov10:58
xG 0.37–0.93 (29%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestKomisarek – Harrison14:10
xG 0.68–0.54 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Liles – Faulk13:15
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Hainsey – Bellemore16:47
xG 0.38–0.90 (30%)attempts 11–21goals 1–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestAkeson – Read – Couturier9:14
xG 0.89–0.16 (85%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Hartnell – Giroux – Voracek11:51
xG 1.27–0.56 (69%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Simmonds – Schenn – McGinn11:53
xG 0.22–0.34 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Hall – Rosehill8:00
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Gustafsson15:53
xG 1.20–0.78 (60%)attempts 23–15goals 1–2
- Timonen – Coburn11:55
xG 0.45–0.33 (57%)attempts 12–8goals 0–2
- Gill – Streit17:22
xG 0.24–0.48 (34%)attempts 13–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).