Sun, Apr 13, 2014·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 3, St. Louis Blues 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 14 | 19 | 18 | 321 |
| STL | 07 | 06 | 010 | 023 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:30DETJustin AbdelkaderGWGAssists: Brian Lashoff, Pavel Datsyuk · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 16:19DETRiley SheahanAssists: Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 12:43DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Jakub Kindl · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–0
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:58DETXavier Ouellet: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 7:59STLCarlo Colaiacovo: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:48DETJoakim Andersson: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 13:49STLMagnus Paajarvi: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 9:38STLJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P2 12:18DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:55STLAlexander Steen: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Steen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Abdelkader – Nyquist11:08
xG 0.42–0.11 (79%)attempts 7–5goals 2–0
- Bertuzzi – Tatar – Sheahan10:01
xG 0.45–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Helm – Andersson – Jurco10:00
xG 0.16–0.25 (39%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Legwand – Miller – Glendening8:29
xG 0.20–0.41 (33%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOuellet – Sproul10:12
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Kindl – Lashoff11:12
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 12–13goals 3–0
- Quincey – Smith15:46
xG 0.45–0.54 (46%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestRoy – Steen – Schwartz2:45
xG 0.14–0.03 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Porter – Cracknell12:40
xG 0.45–0.44 (51%)attempts 9–7goals 0–2
- Roy – Rattie – Jaskin4:08
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Paajarvi – Schwartz2:45
xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Bouwmeester – Cole11:56
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Shattenkirk14:39
xG 0.28–0.43 (39%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Leopold – Polak12:54
xG 0.15–0.37 (29%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).