Sun, Apr 13, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 06 | 19 | 29 | 01 | 1 | 425 |
| BUF | 111 | 110 | 114 | 04 | 0 | 339 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:27BUFJamie McBainAssists: Connor Knapp · Snap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 7:23BUFMatt EllisAssists: Marcus Foligno, Jake McCabe · Tip-in, 0.18 xG0–2
- P2 16:37NYIAnders LeePPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–2
- P3 0:17NYIAnders LeeAssists: Josh Bailey, Frans Nielsen · Backhand, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 9:51BUFTorrey MitchellAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Henrik Tallinder · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 16:16NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. BUF Tyler Ennis stopped
- 2. NYI Frans Nielsen stopped
- 3. BUF Cody Hodgson stopped
- 4. NYI Brock Nelson scored
- 5. BUF Ville Leino stopped
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:22BUFJohn Scott: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:22NYIJustin Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:22NYIJustin Johnson: Interference2 min
- P1 16:17BUFDrew Stafford: Interference2 min
- P2 2:27BUFZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:27NYIBrett Gallant: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:07NYIMatt Carkner: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:15BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:03NYIScott Mayfield: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:07BUFNicolas Deslauriers: Fighting5 min
- P3 4:07NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNelson – Persson – Strome13:02
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Bailey – Lee11:19
xG 0.43–0.35 (55%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gallant – Johnson – Halmo4:45
xG 0.01–0.05 (16%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Martin – Cizikas10:29
xG 0.18–0.65 (22%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Carkner – Donovan13:59
xG 0.20–0.26 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Carkner – Czuczman2:22
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic17:52
xG 0.57–0.80 (42%)attempts 16–21goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMitchell – Hodgson – Girgensons9:46
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Stafford – Scott – Ennis2:39
xG 0.12–0.06 (66%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Stafford – Ennis – Foligno12:27
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Leino – Deslauriers – Conacher7:14
xG 0.17–0.15 (53%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – McCabe11:31
xG 0.57–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Weber – McBain16:00
xG 0.50–0.39 (57%)attempts 13–16goals 1–0
- Tallinder – Ristolainen16:46
xG 0.50–0.49 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).