Sun, Apr 13, 2014·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Ottawa Senators 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 19 | 113 | 09 | 02 | 2 | 333 |
| PIT | 16 | 111 | 011 | 00 | 0 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:46PITJussi JokinenPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.01 xG0–1
- P1 18:38OTTKyle TurrisPPAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 5:16PITLee StempniakAssists: Beau Bennett, Brian Gibbons · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–2
- P2 17:14OTTMark StonePPAssists: Patrick Wiercioch, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.42 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PIT Beau Bennett stopped
- 2. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 3. PIT Jussi Jokinen stopped
- 4. OTT Jason Spezza scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:24PITTanner Glass: Fighting5 min
- P1 9:24OTTChris Neil: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:06OTTMilan Michalek: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:39PITHarry Zolnierczyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:56OTTColin Greening: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:58PITHarry Zolnierczyk: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 9:48OTTErik Condra: Holding2 min
- P2 12:34OTTErik Condra: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:37PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:32PITSimon Despres: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:17PITCraig Adams: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Turris won the faceoff against Gibbons
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestNeil – Greening – Pageau8:24
xG 0.22–0.11 (67%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- MacArthur – Turris – Stone8:31
xG 0.23–0.21 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Michalek9:21
xG 0.13–0.40 (24%)attempts 7–6goals 0–1
- Condra – Smith – Hoffman9:56
xG 0.30–0.71 (30%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhillips – Ceci11:41
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Methot – Karlsson15:58
xG 0.39–0.61 (39%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Gryba – Wiercioch12:46
xG 0.16–0.59 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestStempniak – Bennett – Gibbons7:17
xG 0.62–0.03 (95%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Kunitz – Neal10:39
xG 0.40–0.16 (72%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Adams – Glass – Zolnierczyk6:53
xG 0.24–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Kobasew – Megna8:01
xG 0.24–0.26 (48%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Maatta13:51
xG 0.72–0.25 (74%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Orpik – Martin12:52
xG 0.64–0.27 (70%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Letang13:58
xG 0.28–0.34 (45%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).