Sun, Apr 13, 2014·Honda Center, Anaheim
Colorado Avalanche 2, Anaheim Ducks 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 19 | 110 | 012 | 00 | 231 |
| ANA | 09 | 015 | 210 | 12 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11COLBrad MaloneAssists: Nick Holden, Ryan Wilson · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 18:51COLStefan ElliottAssists: Max Talbot, Patrick Bordeleau · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P3 1:41ANAPatrick MaroonAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Ben Lovejoy · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 4:54ANASaku KoivuAssists: Sami Vatanen, Andrew Cogliano · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–2
- OT 1:33ANANick BoninoGWGAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly, Sami Vatanen · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 9:44ANAAndrew Cogliano: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:52COLNate Guenin: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:24COLNate Guenin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bonino won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTalbot – Bordeleau – Cliche12:07
xG 0.87–0.45 (66%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Parenteau – McGinn – O'Reilly14:38
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Stastny – Landeskog – MacKinnon17:02
xG 0.87–1.48 (37%)attempts 20–25goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Benoit6:12
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Johnson – Holden6:18
xG 0.33–0.35 (48%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Guenin – Elliott6:55
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Smith-Pelly – Rakell12:33
xG 0.56–0.07 (88%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Koivu – Cogliano – Silfverberg11:38
xG 0.81–0.67 (55%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Selanne – Perreault – Maroon14:47
xG 0.85–0.72 (54%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Beleskey – Bonino – Palmieri11:21
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Vatanen13:51
xG 1.08–0.17 (87%)attempts 18–7goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Fowler17:11
xG 0.97–0.87 (53%)attempts 21–23goals 0–0
- Robidas – Lindholm18:16
xG 0.44–0.49 (47%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).