Wed, Oct 8, 2014·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Montréal Canadiens 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 16 | 113 | 213 | 432 |
| TOR | 211 | 07 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:42MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: PA Parenteau, Alexei Emelin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 8:04TORNazem KadriAssists: Brandon Kozun, Joffrey Lupul · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:22TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Stuart Percy, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.25 xG1–2
- P2 4:34MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Alexei Emelin · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 8:41MTLP.K. SubbanAssists: David Desharnais, PA Parenteau · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P3 17:41TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Leo Komarov, Mike Santorelli · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 19:17MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:21TORBrandon Kozun: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:45MTLAlexei Emelin: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 8:19TORDaniel Winnik: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 17:03MTLTom Gilbert: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Desharnais won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Desharnais – Pacioretty13:11
xG 1.15–0.44 (72%)attempts 17–9goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk10:21
xG 0.57–0.28 (67%)attempts 14–12goals 2–1
- Malhotra – Prust – Weise9:47
xG 0.38–0.19 (67%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Bourque – Eller – Sekac11:01
xG 0.18–0.61 (22%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Beaulieu9:34
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Markov – Gilbert17:47
xG 0.56–0.43 (56%)attempts 14–18goals 1–0
- Emelin – Subban17:12
xG 0.72–0.81 (47%)attempts 23–15goals 2–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestClarkson – Santorelli – Komarov10:11
xG 0.47–0.16 (75%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Winnik – Frattin – Holland7:51
xG 0.08–0.32 (21%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Lupul – Kadri – Kozun10:21
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 10–11goals 1–2
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak15:01
xG 0.50–1.12 (31%)attempts 13–20goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Rielly14:12
xG 0.95–0.39 (71%)attempts 16–16goals 1–2
- Polak – Percy13:40
xG 0.17–0.62 (22%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Robidas – Phaneuf15:30
xG 0.32–1.11 (22%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).