Wed, Oct 8, 2014·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 4, Calgary Flames 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 113 | 213 | 17 | 433 |
| CGY | 09 | 27 | 09 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:55VANAlexandre BurrowsPPAssists: Dan Hamhuis, Chris Tanev · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 4:08CGYPaul ByronAssists: Joe Colborne · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 5:16VANZack KassianAssists: Linden Vey, Brad Richardson · Slap, 0.16 xG2–1
- P2 11:07VANRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 13:19CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:44VANHenrik SedinENAssists: Chris Tanev, Brad Richardson · Backhand, 0.67 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:34VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
- P1 4:31VANChris Higgins: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:47CGYPaul Byron: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:32CGYMason Raymond: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:42VANZack Kassian: Interference2 min
- P2 6:57VANBrad Richardson: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:25CGYCurtis Glencross: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:58VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58VANAlexandre Burrows: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58CGYDeryk Engelland: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:58CGYMikael Backlund: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestRichardson – Kassian – Vey5:16
xG 0.63–0.02 (96%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Higgins – Burrows – Bonino7:10
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Vrbata8:25
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Hansen – Dorsett – Matthias4:25
xG 0.00–0.31 (0%)attempts 2–6goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Stanton8:28
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Sbisa7:29
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev8:59
xG 0.24–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 0–2
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Hudler – Glencross – Monahan5:00
xG 0.17–0.14 (55%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- McGrattan – Stajan – Bollig3:36
xG 0.09–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Byron – Colborne – Gaudreau4:21
xG 0.08–0.11 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
- Raymond – Backlund – Bouma4:47
xG 0.09–0.34 (21%)attempts 3–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Brodie10:20
xG 0.32–0.12 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 1–1
- Engelland – Russell7:32
xG 0.12–0.29 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–0
- Wideman – Smid7:14
xG 0.14–0.70 (16%)attempts 3–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).