Thu, Oct 9, 2014·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, Buffalo Sabres 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 012 | 112 | 216 | 340 |
| BUF | 07 | 17 | 08 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 13:21CBJJack SkilleAssists: Jared Boll, Michael Chaput · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 14:42BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Marcus Foligno · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–1
- P3 12:45CBJCam AtkinsonPPGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Nick Foligno · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–1
- P3 17:34CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Scott Hartnell, Alexander Wennberg · Deflected, 0.02 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:15BUFJosh Gorges: Interference2 min
- P1 9:46BUFMike Weber: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:46CBJJared Boll: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:31BUFTyler Myers: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:29BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Holding2 min
- P3 9:09CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:47BUFBrian Gionta: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Ennis won the faceoff against Letestu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Calvert – Dano10:03
xG 0.51–0.09 (85%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Skille – Boll – Chaput7:22
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen8:17
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Wennberg8:58
xG 0.47–0.69 (41%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout13:40
xG 0.86–0.31 (74%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Wisniewski – Erixon11:48
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Tyutin – Wisniewski2:31
xG 0.08–0.10 (43%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestStewart – Foligno – Girgensons11:40
xG 0.92–0.64 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Moulson – Stafford – Ennis12:15
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
- McCormick – Mitchell – Deslauriers6:13
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
- Gionta – Hodgson – Reinhart12:11
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGorges – Myers15:07
xG 0.93–0.14 (87%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
- Benoit – Myers2:06
xG 0.05–0.11 (33%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Weber – Ristolainen14:01
xG 0.36–0.70 (34%)attempts 8–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).