Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 6, Philadelphia Flyers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 15 | 212 | 39 | 626 |
| PHI | 010 | 316 | 113 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:05NJDMichael RyderAssists: Ryane Clowe, Andy Greene · Snap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:10NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 5:33NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Marek Zidlicky · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 15:44PHIClaude GirouxPPAssists: Mark Streit, Jakub Voracek · Snap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 19:03PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Matt Read, Andrew MacDonald · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 19:59PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 4:16NJDPatrik EliasAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Martin Havlat · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 4:31PHIVincent LecavalierAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Mark Streit · Snap, 0.17 xG4–4
- P3 7:13NJDDainius ZubrusGWGAssists: Adam Henrique, Michael Ryder · Snap, 0.10 xG5–4
- P3 19:00NJDMichael CammalleriENAssists: Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.61 xG6–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 13:22PHIPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:38NJDAdam Henrique: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:29NJDJordin Tootoo: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:30NJDPatrik Elias: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:55NJDRyane Clowe: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 4:48PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
- P3 10:20NJDJaromir Jagr: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:06PHINicklas Grossmann: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Havlat9:53
xG 0.85–0.11 (89%)attempts 17–5goals 1–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac13:04
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta6:28
xG 0.21–0.18 (55%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Ryder – Clowe – Henrique9:41
xG 0.28–0.74 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson12:29
xG 0.60–0.36 (62%)attempts 10–21goals 2–0
- Gelinas – Merrill13:50
xG 0.67–0.49 (58%)attempts 13–13goals 1–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky15:06
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 12–12goals 2–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn5:22
xG 0.42–0.09 (82%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier5:06
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – Umberger – Raffl3:25
xG 0.03–0.12 (18%)attempts 3–2goals 0–2
- Rinaldo – Akeson – Bellemare7:57
xG 0.19–0.29 (39%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Del Zotto10:37
xG 0.68–0.47 (59%)attempts 23–8goals 0–4
- Streit – Del Zotto2:13
xG 0.11–0.09 (53%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schultz – MacDonald13:21
xG 0.10–0.42 (19%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).