Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Boston Bruins 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 15 | 04 | 08 | 117 |
| DET | 010 | 210 | 04 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:01BOSPatrice BergeronUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 3:52DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Johan Franzen, Danny DeKeyser · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 14:46DETGustav NyquistPPGWGAssists: Darren Helm, Johan Franzen · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:26BOSDennis Seidenberg: Interference2 min
- P1 17:23BOSDaniel Paille: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 0:35DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
- P2 0:35BOSBrad Marchand: Embellishment2 min
- P2 1:16DETTomas Tatar: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:48DETJakub Kindl: Interference2 min
- P2 13:27BOSPatrice Bergeron: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:44DETBrendan Smith: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:26DETJohan Franzen: Elbowing2 min
- P3 18:14BOSZdeno Chara: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:11
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 6–9goals 1–0
- Lucic – Fraser – Spooner7:58
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Paille – Robins – Cunningham5:09
xG 0.13–0.29 (30%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg11:29
xG 0.12–0.53 (18%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chara – Hamilton12:20
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Krug2:15
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug11:36
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Abdelkader11:47
xG 0.61–0.29 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco9:09
xG 0.31–0.02 (94%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:47
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Helm – Nyquist – Nestrasil8:05
xG 0.07–0.03 (72%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Ericsson12:50
xG 0.71–0.12 (86%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Quincey – Kindl12:25
xG 0.21–0.15 (57%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Smith – DeKeyser12:36
xG 0.22–0.23 (48%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).