Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 03 | 19 | 19 | 00 | 221 |
| TBL | 08 | 19 | 113 | 12 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:03FLAErik GudbransonAssists: Dylan Olsen, Derek MacKenzie · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 7:12TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 7:17TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Victor Hedman · Backhand, 0.42 xG1–2
- P3 9:16FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Brian Campbell, Aaron Ekblad · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- OT 1:11TBLVictor HedmanPPGWGAssists: Ben Bishop · Snap, 0.07 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 5:30FLADave Bolland: Cross checking2 min
- P1 11:20FLAJussi Jokinen: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:41TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:41FLAJussi Jokinen: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:34FLASean Bergenheim: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:02TBLOndrej Palat: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:02FLAShawn Thornton: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:31TBLSteven Stamkos: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:31FLAErik Gudbranson: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:06FLAErik Gudbranson: Boarding2 min
- P3 2:39TBLBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:23FLAScottie Upshall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:18FLADylan Olsen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 13:42TBLRadko Gudas: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:00FLAScottie Upshall: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJokinen – Huberdeau – Barkov7:44
xG 0.13–0.06 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Kopecky3:20
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Bjugstad9:50
xG 0.24–0.38 (39%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland5:39
xG 0.13–0.41 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Olsen – Gudbranson8:54
xG 0.27–0.26 (50%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad14:36
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Mitchell – Kulikov11:57
xG 0.06–0.57 (10%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Johnson – Palat9:41
xG 0.44–0.06 (89%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Connolly – Kucherov – Namestnikov4:00
xG 0.30–0.03 (90%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Brown2:22
xG 0.12–0.01 (94%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown5:32
xG 0.02–0.05 (23%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Sustr11:23
xG 0.60–0.35 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Stralman – Hedman11:24
xG 0.29–0.24 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Garrison – Gudas11:45
xG 0.22–0.19 (54%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).