Thu, Oct 9, 2014·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Dallas Stars 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 13 | 08 | 114 | 01 | 1 | 326 |
| DAL | 08 | 216 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:16CHIDuncan KeithAssists: Brent Seabrook, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 10:13DALTrevor DaleyPPAssists: Ales Hemsky, Jason Spezza · Slap, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 15:04DALCody EakinAssists: Ryan Garbutt, Antoine Roussel · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 11:10CHIPatrick SharpPPAssists: Duncan Keith, Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. DAL Jason Spezza stopped
- 2. CHI Jonathan Toews stopped
- 3. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 4. CHI Patrick Kane scored
- 5. DAL Ales Hemsky stopped
Penalties (13)
- P1 1:50CHIMarcus Kruger: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:15CHIJeremy Morin: Cross checking2 min
- P2 0:23CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43DALVernon Fiddler: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:03CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:03CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: High sticking2 min
- P2 17:26DALBrenden Dillon: Interference2 min
- P2 19:14CHIMarian Hossa: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23DALPatrik Nemeth: Interference2 min
- P3 4:47CHIPatrick Sharp: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:47DALBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:03DALJordie Benn: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P3 18:05DALJordie Benn: Delaying game2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Seguin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Richards – Sharp2:39
xG 0.46–0.01 (98%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hossa – Sharp – Toews6:48
xG 0.12–0.03 (83%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Carcillo – Morin – Kruger3:36
xG 0.04–0.03 (55%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Richards – Bickell – Smith6:02
xG 0.18–0.62 (23%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Hjalmarsson9:28
xG 0.72–0.48 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Hjalmarsson – van Riemsdyk5:53
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Oduya – van Riemsdyk3:06
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Eaves6:56
xG 0.79–0.45 (64%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Horcoff – Fiddler – Sceviour7:27
xG 0.57–0.25 (69%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:30
xG 0.21–0.22 (49%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Benn – Seguin – Nichushkin8:28
xG 0.02–0.34 (7%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Dillon10:54
xG 1.35–0.51 (73%)attempts 19–6goals 1–0
- Connauton – Nemeth8:22
xG 0.41–0.22 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Nemeth2:15
xG 0.01–0.04 (23%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).