Thu, Oct 9, 2014·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 0, Minnesota Wild 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 92% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 05 | 08 | 03 | 016 |
| MIN | 117 | 421 | 010 | 548 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:54MINJason PominvilleGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 4:37MINJared SpurgeonAssists: Zach Parise, Jason Pominville · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 7:01MINZach PariseAssists: Mikael Granlund · Backhand, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 13:21MINNino NiederreiterUnassisted · Deflected, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 16:58MINRyan SuterAssists: Zach Parise, Charlie Coyle · Slap, 0.04 xG0–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:51MINRyan Carter: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:30MINMarco Scandella: Interference2 min
- P1 8:53COLBrad Stuart: Holding2 min
- P2 6:56COLErik Johnson: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:56MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05MINMathew Dumba: Holding2 min
- P2 18:55COLErik Johnson: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:32COLGabriel Landeskog: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:32MINJason Zucker: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:07MINRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Cliche – Everberg6:15
xG 0.74–0.15 (83%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Iginla – Tanguay – Duchene4:59
xG 0.08–0.06 (59%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Iginla – O'Reilly – Duchene4:36
xG 0.06–0.10 (38%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Landeskog – MacKinnon4:24
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stuart – Hejda2:30
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Hejda – Holden2:45
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:46
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund10:41
xG 1.54–0.00 (100%)attempts 24–2goals 2–0
- Brodziak – Carter – Zucker8:01
xG 0.56–0.00 (100%)attempts 11–0goals 0–0
- Haula – Coyle – Niederreiter6:37
xG 0.70–0.65 (52%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Cooke – Koivu – Vanek8:10
xG 0.15–0.28 (36%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin14:09
xG 1.59–0.19 (90%)attempts 22–5goals 2–0
- Scandella – Spurgeon13:00
xG 1.37–0.07 (95%)attempts 24–6goals 2–0
- Dumba – Folin12:15
xG 0.11–0.77 (13%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 92% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).