Fri, Oct 10, 2014·PNC Arena, Raleigh
New York Islanders 5, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 28 | 17 | 211 | 526 |
| CAR | 06 | 010 | 38 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 17:06NYIJohnny BoychukPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Slap, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 18:54NYIBrock NelsonAssists: John Tavares, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 7:38NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, John Tavares · Deflected, 0.19 xG3–0
- P3 1:25CARNathan GerbePPAssists: Justin Faulk, Andrej Sekera · Backhand, 0.18 xG3–1
- P3 5:11NYIMikhail GrabovskiGWGAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Snap, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 12:19NYITravis HamonicAssists: Brock Nelson, Ryan Strome · Snap, 0.03 xG5–1
- P3 14:20CARChris TerryAssists: Andrej Sekera, Riley Nash · Slap, 0.03 xG5–2
- P3 18:26CAREric StaalPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.05 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:51NYIRyan Strome: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:36CARBrad Malone: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:53CARJay Harrison: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:31NYITravis Hamonic: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:42CARTim Gleason: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:32NYIJohnny Boychuk: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:21NYIBrian Strait: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cizikas won the faceoff against McClement
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:45
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Bailey4:28
xG 0.12–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome5:30
xG 0.07–0.04 (63%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Conacher8:04
xG 0.40–0.90 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy9:05
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Strait – Reinhart7:17
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic10:06
xG 0.35–0.59 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Malone6:38
xG 0.93–0.17 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Terry – Nash – Brown4:45
xG 0.05–0.05 (53%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Gerbe – Rask – Lindholm4:45
xG 0.01–0.20 (7%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty7:58
xG 0.06–0.48 (11%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Harrison7:40
xG 0.38–0.14 (73%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Liles8:25
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk8:10
xG 0.32–0.48 (40%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).