Sat, Oct 11, 2014·TD Garden, Boston
Washington Capitals 4, Boston Bruins 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 19 | 15 | 421 |
| BOS | 014 | 08 | 07 | 029 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 18:39WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 10:34WSHMike GreenPPAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Andre Burakovsky · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P3 18:46WSHJoel WardAssists: John Carlson, Andre Burakovsky · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–0
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:03BOSDennis Seidenberg: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:17WSHMike Green: Interference2 min
- P1 11:18BOSBobby Robins: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- P1 11:18BOSBobby Robins: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:18WSHMichael Latta: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:41WSHAndre Burakovsky: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:38WSHNate Schmidt: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:38BOSBrad Marchand: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:59BOSZdeno Chara: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:40WSHBrooks Orpik: Interference2 min
- P2 19:06WSHJason Chimera: Holding2 min
- P3 16:23BOSMilan Lucic: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:23BOSMilan Lucic: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kelly won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Chimera – Ward – Laich8:21
xG 0.09–0.05 (65%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Latta – Kuznetsov – O'Brien4:18
xG 0.09–0.06 (62%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Brouwer – Johansson – Burakovsky6:07
xG 0.02–0.07 (22%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Fehr – Ovechkin – Backstrom11:28
xG 0.20–0.32 (38%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Alzner12:41
xG 0.49–0.14 (78%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Orpik – Green3:20
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Schmidt2:04
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:39
xG 0.60–0.23 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kelly – Eriksson – Soderberg5:00
xG 0.36–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Soderberg – Spooner3:04
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kelly – Lucic – Fraser3:36
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Krug11:36
xG 0.72–0.15 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid10:14
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 10–5goals 0–1
- Seidenberg – Hamilton8:29
xG 0.15–0.11 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).