Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 09 | 110 | 27 | 326 |
| DET | 05 | 113 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:13ANARyan GetzlafAssists: Corey Perry, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 15:33DETLuke GlendeningAssists: Justin Abdelkader, Niklas Kronwall · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 1:57DETGustav NyquistAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Johan Franzen · Snap, 0.04 xG1–2
- P3 3:18ANAMatt BeleskeyAssists: Ryan Kesler · Snap, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 19:36ANARyan GetzlafGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:44DETJonathan Ericsson: Holding2 min
- P1 10:50ANASami Vatanen: Interference2 min
- P2 4:27DETLuke Glendening: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:28ANAAndrew Cogliano: High sticking2 min
- P2 18:28ANANate Thompson: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:28DETJohan Franzen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:39DETHenrik Zetterberg: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Sheahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestKesler – Beleskey – Smith-Pelly11:43
xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Silfverberg3:26
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Karlsson6:24
xG 0.09–0.19 (33%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jackman – Thompson – Etem5:54
xG 0.01–0.21 (6%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Fowler14:04
xG 0.53–0.31 (63%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Stoner – Vatanen15:17
xG 0.23–0.39 (37%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Beauchemin – Lindholm15:13
xG 0.42–0.69 (38%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Franzen – Abdelkader8:55
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Zetterberg – Franzen – Nyquist5:46
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 10–4goals 1–1
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening10:11
xG 0.16–0.11 (60%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Sheahan – Jurco10:14
xG 0.22–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – Kindl14:20
xG 0.60–0.15 (80%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson14:22
xG 0.44–0.41 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
- Smith – DeKeyser15:02
xG 0.38–0.54 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).