Sat, Oct 11, 2014·BB&T Center, Sunrise
New Jersey Devils 5, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 411 | 18 | 05 | 524 |
| FLA | 09 | 17 | 013 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:37NJDTuomo RuutuAssists: Eric Gelinas, Jon Merrill · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 8:46NJDMartin HavlatPPGWGAssists: Eric Gelinas, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 13:13NJDMichael CammalleriPPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Damon Severson · Slap, 0.03 xG3–0
- P1 19:32NJDDamon SeversonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–0
- P2 2:59NJDRyane CloweAssists: Michael Ryder, Adam Henrique · Slap, 0.14 xG5–0
- P2 16:31FLADerek MacKenziePPAssists: Scottie Upshall, Brian Campbell · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–1
Penalties (17)
- P1 7:36FLANick Bjugstad: Delaying game bench2 min · PPG
- P1 12:13FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P1 15:40NJDJordin Tootoo: Interference2 min
- P1 19:40FLAShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:40NJDBryce Salvador: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00NJDTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P2 5:02FLATomas Fleischmann: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:27NJDJordin Tootoo: High sticking2 min
- P2 13:10FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:24NJDTuomo Ruutu: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 19:17NJDStephen Gionta: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:44NJDMichael Cammalleri: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:22NJDJon Merrill: Boarding2 min
- P3 8:28NJDMartin Havlat: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 15:33FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:33NJDTravis Zajac: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:34FLAAaron Ekblad: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Elias won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Clowe – Henrique6:33
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Ruutu – Tootoo – Gionta6:33
xG 0.06–0.02 (76%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Jagr – Cammalleri – Zajac8:28
xG 0.19–0.18 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Elias – Zubrus – Havlat8:09
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Severson8:05
xG 0.50–0.07 (87%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Greene – Merrill2:39
xG 0.06–0.04 (61%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Salvador – Zidlicky7:55
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Fleischmann – Bolland2:15
xG 0.15–0.03 (84%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Upshall – Bjugstad4:13
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fleischmann – Bergenheim – Bolland2:15
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Huberdeau – Barkov7:58
xG 0.08–0.15 (34%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Campbell – Ekblad14:05
xG 0.26–0.22 (55%)attempts 13–8goals 0–2
- Mitchell – Kulikov10:02
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 10–6goals 0–1
- Olsen – Gudbranson6:52
xG 0.10–0.11 (48%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).