Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 3, New York Islanders 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 211 | 05 | 18 | 324 |
| NYI | 29 | 212 | 010 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:50NYIJohn TavaresPPAssists: Brock Nelson, Johnny Boychuk · Slap, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 14:13CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P1 14:44NYICory ConacherAssists: John Tavares, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P1 19:43CARJiri TlustyPPAssists: Eric Staal, Alexander Semin · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 6:47NYIBrock NelsonPPAssists: Johnny Boychuk, Kyle Okposo · Slap, 0.05 xG2–3
- P2 19:56NYIJosh BaileyGWGAssists: Frans Nielsen, Nikolay Kulemin · Tip-in, 0.15 xG2–4
- P3 14:01CARJiri TlustyUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:44CARNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 5:17CARPatrick Brown: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:37NYITravis Hamonic: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 18:56NYIMatt Martin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 2:45CARVictor Rask: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39CARTim Gleason: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:39NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:00CARAlexander Semin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 8:11CARJay Harrison: Misconduct10 min
- P2 8:11CARJay Harrison: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:11NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:11NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:11CARJay Harrison: Instigator2 min
- P2 10:13CARPatrick Brown: Interference2 min
- P2 13:17NYITravis Hamonic: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:52NYIJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMcClement – Dwyer – Malone5:03
xG 0.53–0.20 (73%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Tlusty5:32
xG 0.09–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Semin – Tlusty – Nash3:01
xG 0.21–0.16 (57%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Terry – Nash – Brown2:15
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSekera – Murphy2:16
xG 0.23–0.02 (93%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Gleason6:28
xG 0.22–0.23 (49%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Sekera – Faulk8:31
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas4:15
xG 0.34–0.05 (88%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Bailey6:07
xG 0.13–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Okposo – Tavares – Conacher7:59
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 9–6goals 1–1
- Grabovski – Nelson – Strome8:12
xG 0.18–0.35 (33%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy8:27
xG 0.41–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Hickey – Hamonic12:00
xG 0.31–0.26 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Strait – Reinhart10:06
xG 0.45–0.67 (40%)attempts 8–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).