Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Montréal Canadiens 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 011 | 07 | 319 | 01 | 1 | 438 |
| PHI | 214 | 113 | 04 | 01 | 0 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39PHIMichael RafflAssists: Claude Giroux, Jakub Voracek · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 3:57PHIWayne SimmondsAssists: Brayden Schenn, Michael Del Zotto · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 0:55PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Mark Streit · Wrist, 0.46 xG0–3
- P3 7:05MTLAndrei MarkovAssists: Brendan Gallagher, P.K. Subban · Snap, 0.11 xG1–3
- P3 9:12MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: PA Parenteau, Andrei Markov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 14:40MTLAlex GalchenyukAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Andrei Markov · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PHI Vincent Lecavalier stopped
- 2. MTL Alex Galchenyuk stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. MTL David Desharnais stopped
- 5. PHI Sean Couturier stopped
- 6. MTL Brendan Gallagher stopped
- 7. PHI Matt Read stopped
- 8. MTL PA Parenteau scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:53MTLRene Bourque: Interference2 min
- P1 11:36PHIMichael Del Zotto: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:59PHIJason Akeson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:28MTLTom Gilbert: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:28PHIJason Akeson: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 16:09PHIJakub Voracek: Holding2 min
- P1 17:14MTLP.K. Subban: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 0:10MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:46MTLBrandon Prust: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- OT 2:23MTLLars Eller: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Desharnais
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestDesharnais – Pacioretty – Gallagher13:17
xG 1.25–0.46 (73%)attempts 27–9goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Parenteau – Galchenyuk4:24
xG 0.71–0.02 (97%)attempts 9–3goals 2–0
- Bourque – Eller – Sekac5:04
xG 0.42–0.01 (97%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Galchenyuk – Sekac7:56
xG 0.17–0.21 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMarkov – Subban15:56
xG 1.51–0.64 (70%)attempts 32–13goals 3–0
- Weaver – Tinordi10:45
xG 0.63–0.27 (70%)attempts 19–12goals 0–1
- Gilbert – Beaulieu15:30
xG 0.76–0.69 (52%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Rinaldo – Akeson – Bellemare6:01
xG 0.13–0.22 (37%)attempts 2–14goals 0–0
- Umberger – Read – Couturier9:14
xG 0.57–0.80 (42%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl9:09
xG 0.60–0.88 (41%)attempts 13–16goals 1–1
- Lecavalier – Simmonds – Schenn8:05
xG 0.23–0.72 (24%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Streit – Grossmann14:56
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 16–19goals 0–0
- Schenn – Del Zotto9:53
xG 0.70–0.87 (45%)attempts 9–19goals 2–1
- Schultz – MacDonald18:33
xG 0.40–1.29 (24%)attempts 15–30goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).