Sat, Oct 11, 2014·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
New York Rangers 2, Columbus Blue Jackets 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 93% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 18 | 18 | 226 |
| CBJ | 27 | 18 | 29 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:24CBJArtem AnisimovAssists: Scott Hartnell, Marko Dano · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 17:33CBJNick FolignoAssists: Ryan Johansen, David Savard · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–2
- P2 5:43NYRLee StempniakAssists: Anthony Duclair, Marc Staal · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 9:49CBJCam AtkinsonGWGAssists: Nick Foligno, Ryan Johansen · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–3
- P3 13:47CBJMarko DanoAssists: Dalton Prout, Michael Chaput · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–4
- P3 14:19NYRRick NashAssists: Anthony Duclair · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–4
- P3 18:39CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Scott Hartnell · Wrist, 0.59 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 3:42NYRCarl Hagelin: Elbowing2 min
- P1 9:17CBJMichael Chaput: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:36NYRLee Stempniak: Charging2 min
- P1 14:52CBJJack Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 12:36NYRTanner Glass: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:00NYRChris Kreider: Instigator2 min
- P2 19:00NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00CBJJack Skille: Fighting5 min
- P2 19:00NYRChris Kreider: Instigator misconduct10 min
- P2 19:29CBJAlexander Wennberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:17NYRCarl Hagelin: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:17CBJMichael Chaput: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- St. Louis – Nash – Duclair3:45
xG 0.12–0.16 (44%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Stempniak – Miller – Duclair5:42
xG 0.20–0.27 (43%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast7:09
xG 0.01–0.17 (4%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Brassard – Hagelin – Zuccarello6:00
xG 0.11–0.36 (24%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Moore2:35
xG 0.24–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Hunwick – Staal4:30
xG 0.09–0.15 (38%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Hunwick – McDonagh2:48
xG 0.03–0.20 (14%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Johansen8:30
xG 1.34–0.18 (88%)attempts 11–7goals 2–1
- Boll – Chaput – Dano2:47
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
- Letestu – Calvert – Dano4:55
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Anisimov – Wennberg7:54
xG 0.31–0.23 (58%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Prout12:17
xG 1.21–0.21 (85%)attempts 16–7goals 3–0
- Johnson – Savard15:44
xG 0.51–0.39 (57%)attempts 11–15goals 0–2
- Wisniewski – Erixon11:41
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 93% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).